V. Lance Tarrance, who was the pollster for George Deukmejian when he defeated Tom Bradley for governor of California thus initiating the whole theory of a "Bradley Effect" argues that there never was such an effect. Most of this mythology grew up out of overly optimistic polling done by Mervin Field who had predicted a Bradley win and then when Bradley didn't win came up with the theory of white voters not telling the truth to pollsters, particularly in his exit polls that showed Bradley winning. Tarrance says that Bradley actually won on election day, but Deukmejian won on the absentee ballots and that ended up determining the election. We were living in Los Angeles at that time and have ever since referred to the Field poll with ironic air quotes as "the respected Field poll" since it seemed that almost ever mention of the Field poll had that adjective in front of it. Read more here:
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/articles/2008/10/the_bradley_effect_selective_m.html
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