Instead of restaurant business incubators, an urgent care center, and
social service centers housed in surplus school buildings could Pasadena be the
new home of an auto manufacturing plant?Sounds crazy doesn’t it.But Wired magazine is reporting how making cars may turn into a local
enterprise run by micro-industries.LOCAL MOTORS is a business startup that has already started making cars
out of a small unit in a business park.Coincidentally, Sangho Kim, a student at Pasadena’s Art Center College
of Design, was LOCAL MOTORS’ first design award winner.LOCAL MOTORS plans to have franchises.
What better place for a franchise than Pasadena with the Art Center, Cal Tech,
and a bunch of NASA engineers living in the community?Does the City of Pasadena have an
economic development plan that might include producing cars locally?Not today.Instead it wants to return to the hey days of the 1960’s
social programs rather than the emerging high tech micro-industries. Another barrier to Pasadena producing cars is that its elites and social planners hate cars - except SUV's for themselves. It wants everyone else to ride trains and walk to work. Pasadena loves historic preservation and living in the past. But the world and technology is changing. Will Pasadena?
Read the article “In the Next
Industrial Revolution, Atoms are the New Bits” below:
EXCERPT FROM WIRED MAGAZINE
The door of
a dry-cleaner-size storefront in an industrial park in
Wareham, Massachusetts, an hour south of Boston, might not look like a portal
to the future of American manufacturing, but it is. This is the headquarters of
Local Motors, the first open source car
company to reach production. Step inside and the office reveals itself as a
mind-blowing example of the power of micro-factories.
Local Motors will officially release the Rally Fighter, a $50,000 off-road (but
street-legal) racer. The design was crowdsourced, as was the selection of
mostly off-the-shelf components, and the final assembly will be done by the
customers themselves in local assembly centers as part of a “build experience.”
Several more designs are in the pipeline, and the company says it can take a
new vehicle from sketch to market in 18 months, about the time it takes Detroit
to change the specs on some door trim.
CEO of Local Motors, …opted for totally original designs: They don’t evoke
classic cars but rather reimagine what a car can be. The Rally Fighter’s body
was designed by Local Motors’ community of volunteers and puts the lie to the
notion that you can’t create anything good by committee (so long as the
community is well managed, well led, and well equipped with tools like 3-D
design software and photorealistic rendering technology). The result is a car
that puts Detroit to shame.
was a competition. The winner was Sangho Kim, a 30-year-old
graphic artist and student at the Art Center College of Design in Pasadena,
California. When Local Motors asked its community to submit ideas for next-gen
vehicles, Kim’s sketches and renderings captivated the crowd. There wasn’t
supposed to be a prize, but the company gave Kim $10,000 anyway. As the
community coalesced around his Rally Fighter, members competed to develop
secondary parts, from the side vents to the light bar.
While the community
crafted the exterior, Local Motors designed or selected the chassis, engine,
and transmission thanks to relationships with companies like Penske Automotive Group, which helped the
firm source everything from dashboard dials to the new BMW clean diesel engine
the Rally Fighter will use. This combination — have the pros handle the
elements that are critical to performance, safety, and manufacturability while
the community designs the parts that give the car its shape and style — allows
crowdsourcing to work even for a product whose use has life-and-death
has just 10 full-time employees (that number will grow to more than 50 as it
opens build centers, the first of which will be in Phoenix), holds almost no
inventory, and purchases components and prepares kits only after buyers have
made a down payment and reserved a build date.
Rogers’ grandson intends to do something even more radical — create a whole new
way of making cars — on a shoestring budget. His company has raised roughly $7
million, and he thinks that’s enough to take it to profitability. The
difference between now and then? “They didn’t have resources back then to enter
the market, because the manufacturing process was so tightly held,” he says.
What’s changed is that the supply chain is opening to the little guys.
Harvard, Rogers saw a presentation on Threadless,
the open-design T-shirt company, which showed him the power of crowdsourcing.
Cars are more complicated than T-shirts, but in both cases there are far more
people who can design them than are currently paid to do so — Rogers estimates
that less than 30 percent of car design students get jobs at auto companies
upon graduation. The rest become frustrated car designers, exactly the pool of
talent that might respond to a well-organized vehicle design competition and
community. Today, the Local Motors Web site has around 5,000 members. That’s a
500-to-1 ratio of volunteer contributors to employees. This is how industries
The tools of
factory production, from electronics assembly to 3-D printing, are now
available to individuals, in batches as small as a single unit. Anybody with an
idea and a little expertise can set assembly lines in China into motion with
nothing more than some keystrokes on their laptop. A few days later, a
prototype will be at their door, and once it all checks out, they can push a
few more buttons and be in full production, making hundreds, thousands, or
more. They can become a virtual micro-factory, able to design and sell goods
without any infrastructure or even inventory; products can be assembled and
drop-shipped by contractors who serve hundreds of such customers simultaneously.
micro-factories make everything from cars to bike components to bespoke
furniture in any design you can imagine. The collective potential of a million
garage tinkerers is about to be unleashed on the global markets, as ideas go
straight into production, no financing or tooling required. “Three guys with
laptops” used to describe a Web startup. Now it describes a hardware company,
Will Collier - Pajamas Media EXCERPT A few months ago, the Nuclear Regulatory
Commission granted permission for initial site work to
begin on new nuclear reactors in the United States for the first time since the
1970s. Georgia Power, a subsidiary of the gigantic Southern Company, plans to
build the two new reactors at its Vogtle nuclear plant, near Augusta.
The planned Votgle upgrade is estimated to cost
around $14 billion, and each reactor will produce around 1250 megawatts of
electricity (MWe). The new reactors will be added to two existing units which
were completed during the 1980s.
All the current NRC applications have one thing
in common: they’re for large-scale power plants, technically improved but
functionally not dissimilar from the reactors of the 1970s.
While political conservatives generally look
favorably upon nuclear energy, the economics remain daunting. In
a now-famous paper for Reason, Jerry Taylor of Cato said nuclear power “is to
the Right what solar is to the Left: Religious devotion in practice, a
wonderful technology in theory, but an economic white elephant in fact.” Taylor
referenced industry studies showing nuclear electricity costing four to five
times as much per kilowatt hour than coal or gas plants, and noted the massive
subsidies and loan guarantees handed out to power companies as undermining the
cost rationale for nuclear power.
All of which makes me wonder, again: this is the
21st century — why are we looking at huge, multibillion-dollar facilities in
the first place? It’s not like other options don’t exist.
Take for instance the Hyperion Power Module, or HMP. Developed at,
and then spun off from, the Los Alamos National Laboratory, Hyperion is
marketing the diametric opposite of the power companies’ massive and complex
facilities. Hyperion’s reactor is a relatively tiny device, about the size of a
dinky Smart Car.
Unlike large-scale plants requiring 24/7
monitoring by a small army of engineers and technicians, an HPM contains no
moving parts, and is intended to operate for years with no human interaction to
speak of. Hyperion reactors are actually intended to be buried underground
during their service lives, with no hands-on maintenance at all between
refueling cycles, which occur every 7-10 years.
Of course, a single Hyperion unit is hardly the
equivalent of a Westinghouse AP1000 reactor, two of which are planned for the
Votgle facility. One HPM generates only 25 MWe, while a massive AP1000 churns
out an appropriately massive 1250 MWe or so.
But nobody ever said you have to buy just one. If
we assume that a single new AP1000 costs about $7 billion for 1250 MWe
(which is not entirely fair as “sticker prices” go, since the $14 billion
estimate for the Votgle plant upgrade includes financing costs as well as
actual production), that works out to about $5.6 million per MWe.
Hyperion says its reactors aren’t intended to
replace large-scale generation plants, but the engineer in me wonders, why not?
HPMs are built on an assembly line, and Hyperion already has over 100 orders
for them. Picking up my calculator again, I figure that in order to equal the
output of one AP1000 reactor, I’d need to buy 50 HPMs.
At $50 million per unit (how about a bulk
discount?), that would cost $2.5 billion. Now, I don’t have that kind of cash
laying around myself, but you don’t need to be an accountant to see that $2.5
billion is a lot less than $7 billion. And that doesn’t count the untold
millions I’d have to spend on the aforementioned army of maintainers for the
AP1000 — although either way, you’d need a sizable team of regular power plant
workers to maintain the actual power turbines.
There would also be other benefits, in that you
wouldn’t have to locate the entire power apparatus out in the middle of
nowhere. Hyperion-style reactors can’t melt down, and are designed to be buried
in small plots. Why not use that easy portability to distribute your power
plants all over the place? Put a couple near your city’s main hospital, a
couple more in your industrial zone, with single units scattered around the
suburbs and residential cores, and you’ve got a redundant system that’s far
less susceptible to, say, blackouts during bad weather, as opposed to running
power across hundreds of miles of transmission lines.
Pat Buchanan President Obama is in a dilemma from which there appears to be no easy or early escape.
Democrats are the Party of Government. They feed it, and it feeds them. The larger government grows, the more agencies that are created, the more bureaucrats who are hired, the more people who become beneficiaries, the more deeply entrenched in power the Party of Government becomes.
At the local, state and federal level, there are 19 million to 20 million government employees. And if one takes only Social Security, Medicare, Medicaid, food stamps and earned income tax credits, we are talking of scores of millions who depend on government checks for the necessities of their daily life.
These vast armies of voters – these tens of millions of government employees and scores of millions of government beneficiaries – are the big battalions of the Party of Government. They provide implacable resistance to any party that pledges to cut or curtail government. For they are fighting for their livelihood. And here is where Obama's dilemma arises.
The progressives thought that with the takeover of both houses of Congress by veto-proof Democratic majorities, and the election of the most progressive of the candidates in the Democratic primaries save Dennis Kucinich, a new Progressive Era was at hand.
Another New Deal, another Great Society. And early passage of a stimulus package of $787 billion, nearly 6 percent of the entire economy packed into a single bill, seemed to confirm that happy days were here again.
But, at the same time, the federal takeover of AIG, General Motors and Chrysler and the bailouts of Fannie, Freddie and the Wall Street banks were igniting a Perot-style prairie fire that manifested itself in Tea Party rallies in the spring and town-hall protests in August.
Harry Reid and Nancy Pelosi denounced these folks as "evil-mongers" engaged in the "un-American" activity of shouting down Democrats – though, when college radicals do it to conservatives, it is called "heckling" and the conservatives are instructed that they "just do not understand the First Amendment."
Came November, Republican victories in Virginia and New Jersey showed that the grass-roots rebellion was real and broad-based. This was confirmed by Scott Brown's astonishing upset in Massachusetts, where a state Obama won by 26 points went Republican by 6 points, with Brown capturing a Senate seat held by the Kennedy brothers since 1952. Talk about a fire bell in the night.
Obama's dilemma, evident in his State of the Union, is that the progressives, who were indispensable to his victories over Hillary, now feel betrayed, especially with apparent abandonment of health insurance reform, while conservative Democrats and independents, who were indispensable in giving Obama his November victory, are angry and alienated and disposed to vote Republican to stop what they see as America's plunge into socialism.
The non-negotiable demands of these two essential elements of Obama's coalition are in irreconcilable conflict. Obama tried to mollify both in his address to Congress by emphasizing aspects of his agenda that appeal to each. Thus the progressives were promised an end to the "Don't ask, don't tell" policy on gays in the military, while Tea Party and town-hall activists got a partial freeze on federal spending and promises of nuclear power, clean coal and offshore drilling.
Obama's problem: He can end up satisfying no one and angering everyone. John McCain has already denounced Obama's call for open homosexuality in the military, a position that will resonate with Middle America, while House Democrats are appalled the Pentagon will be exempt from budget caps imposed on social programs.
Arthur Laffer has pointed up the burgeoning crisis Obama and the progressives confront. Today, state, local and federal government spending consumes 38 percent of the gross domestic product. Federal spending alone is 27 percent.
"If you total what the government takes in the income tax, corporate tax, Social Security taxes, capital gains taxes," says Laffer, "all of that adds up to $2.2 trillion in tax receipts, and they spent $3.5 trillion."
In 2009, we had a deficit of $1.4 trillion, 10 percent of GDP. The most conservative estimate for this year is a deficit of $1.35 trillion, more than 9 percent of GDP.
With the public debt surging as a share of GDP, and talk of a debt default by the United States, how can Obama create or expand the social programs as progressives demand? And with the deficit running above 9 percent of GDP, how – even if the economy starts to grow – can you close this without raising taxes from 18 percent of GDP to 22 percent or 23 percent? That would be an added tax hike of $560 billion to $700 billion – a year.
That kind of hit on the private sector could kill a recovery, just as Herbert Hoover and FDR did in the early 1930s.
January 26, 2010, 2274 Mars days into the mission, NASA declared
‘Spirit’ a ‘stationary research station” expected to stay operational
for several more months until the dust buildup on its solar panels
forces a final shutdown.” Spirit = A Robot.
NASA's Mars rover vehicle "Spirit" has become a "stationary research station" due to dust buildup on the solar panels as a symbol of our economy and society which has come to a stop and our water system which has been stopped up by an environmental lawsuit.
Hat Tip: Debbie Devens In California, the "Move-over" law became operative on January 1, 2010.
The cost of the ticket was $200.
Important Law to Share:
I wanted to let my Medlock Bridge neighbors know about the CA move over law. My son got a ticket on Pleasant Hill coming back from Wal-Mart. A Duluth police car (turned out it was 2 police cars) was on the side of the road giving a ticket to someone else. My son slowed down to pass but did not move into the other lane. The second police car immediately pulled him over and gave him a ticket. My son and I had never heard of the law. It is a fairly new law that states if any emergency vehicle is on the side of the road, if you are able, you are to move into the far lane.
The cost of the ticket was $200 Please let everyone you know that drives about this new law.
It is true (see details at the following web address). It states that except two states, all the other US states (even Canada ) enacted similar kind of law.
n. Purchasing a barrel to ride over the Devil’s Gate Dam spillway in an
historic rainstorm for the price of a trendy condo you cannot afford (Original:
purchasing the barrel of whiskey that you do not need for the price of a cow
you cannot afford). -- adapted from Ambrose Bierce, The Devil’s
must be an unstated Orwellian law for state of the union, state or city
speeches. It must go something like this: “whatever the theme for the speech it
serves only as a cover for its opposite.” Case in point: the theme for
the Pasadena 2010 State of the City speech – “Charting a New Course” – really
must mean “we’re staying on course;" i.e. "we are not
way President Obama stated this Wednesday night in his State of the Union speech
was: “I don’t quit!” And neither will Pasadena. It’s implied message is “go
to hell, or go over the Devil’s Gate Dam spillway in a rain barrel for all we
care.” But it’s the nation and many of its states and cities that are
symbolically going over the water fall in a barrel, not some so-called “wing
nuts” that are shouting to stop manufacturing barrels that give one a euphoric
and illusionary ride until the fall.
City has broadcast that it is going to continue with its:
and affordable housing policies near Gold Line stations;
Green City Action Plan and implementation of the Global Warming Solution Act
Subsidization of office building space for an Urgent Care Center; social
services in surplus public school buildings, and a restaurant business
More water conservation enforcement and higher water rates;
Continued refusal of transparency about electricity rate rebates;
More building of downtown luxury housing driven by affordable housing quotas;
More purchase of open space in single family neighborhoods totransfer
view-amenity values to neighboring homes, as the occasion arises. More
extortion of hiking trails from developers that have no legal nexus to the
mitigation of environmental impacts of the project (Nollan vs. Cal. Coastal
Pursuit of a parcel tax to fix the hysteria over a possible PUSD budget shortfall despite legal guarantee under Prop 98 that school tax revenues cannot fall even in an economic recession.
has always had a rosy and aristocratic view of itself; the Rose Parade and
Game, “Doo Dah Parade,” “Old Town,” “historic preservation,” “Green City,” with
obscure and euphemistic mottos like “Inclusionary Housing” and “The Pasadena
Way.” A luxury city with a high poverty rate seems to be the paradoxical
image marketing strategy. Democrat Joel Kotkin calls this “Gentry
Pasadena Mayor Bill Bogaard begins his new terms (his 10th?), Pasadena needs to
reexamine its core economic strategy. It has not updated the Business and
Development Element of General Plan since 1987. Its de facto business
plan is to continually expand the nonprofit sector even extending it into
taking over former private enterprises (e.g., affordable housing, internet
cafes, culinary schools, etc.). This sub rosa business plan seems to work in
the past, so who can fight what works? Answer: only those who are against “the
Pasadena Way.” Hence, there is no chance for dialogue.
first course correction might be to recognize that the world owes Pasadena
nothing. Pasadena cannot continue to rely on a quasi-government economic base
of JPL-Cal Tech aerospace projects (now being diverted away from JPL by a
Democratic Congress), Fannie Mae as a local government sponsored enterprise
(GSE), its failed offsprings Indy-Mac Bank (now One West Bank) and Countrywide
Bank, an Old Town retail economy addicted to the former Housing Bubble that
turned homes into bank accounts for more retail goods and services, and over a
thousand units of unsold and unrented downtown new housing units that are a
drag on taxes and the City’s Water Fund all driven by affordable housing
quotas. We conveniently forget that government regulation and programs
have propped up this false economic base.
nonprofit economic base of Pasadena likewise is partly funded on government
grants routed through the non-profit Pasadena Education Foundation (PEF) and
the soon-to-be-created new municipal social service nonprofit. The city
and its wide network of nonprofit patrons do not view this as corruption (a la
Prop B) but as part of philanthropy, “Federalism,” and part of the Progressive “American
Way” (e.g., People for the American Way, Organize for America, the Progressive
America Fund, etc.). To take away or even make accountable this nonprofit
economic base would be “un-American” and not part of “the Pasadena Way.” It’s
all part of the Cultural Bubble that is mostly invisible to those inside it.
The next heretical thing
Pasadena could do is moderate its Progressive social policy image and (hold
your nose) promote single family housing, neighborhoods and churches to increase the number of family formations. As Joel Kotkin aptly points out, this will be critical when the
Millennial Generation reaches their 20’s and 30’s and likely will begin moving
out of all the new downtown Pasadena luxury housing and modest homes and
apartments north of the Foothill Freeway to raise families in the suburbs and
exurbs.The in-your-face self-righteous rhetoric about the definition of
marriage, however a pro-civil rights cause, is cultural and
economic suicide. It's like riding a barrel over Niagara Falls or Pasadena's
Devil's Gate Dam.
As former Bank of America
stock market researcher David P. Goldman has insightfully pointed out the root
of our financial collapse is a demographic imbalance. We are not
producing enough intact two-parent young and educated families to buy homes and
pay mortgages and take out small business loans to suck up the surplus
retirement incomes of the Baby Boomers. Instead, government is trying to
force place single parent, low income poorly-educated families into housing to
suck up these mortgages to prop up the retirements of the Baby Boomers and of Social
Security and Medicare: thus, the Community Reinvestment Act and an
out-of-control immigration policy as desperate rear-guard actions. But a house
built on sand won’t hold in a flood of foreclosures. The result: an
effective 1% return on bank accounts (effectively negative return).
For Pasadena this means
putting less social policy emphasis on inclusionary housing, luxury condos and
apartments located in “urban villages,” new theaters integrated into luxury
multi-family housing projects, and transit-oriented housing (Gold Line light
rail). All this is sexy, modern and social status enhancing, but it is
demographically, environmentally and economically unsustainable. It’s
like buying an overpriced barrel-shaped Toyota Prius for short commuter trips and
taking the Gold Line to work that still requires a connection bus ticket to get
Another policy is the
trendy “Smart Growth” back-to-the-city movement, laws and policies adopted in
total by the City. “Smart Growth” has become a sort of religion among
architects and city planners in Pasadena. It is religious like because it
flies in the face of empirical reality.
One of the manifestations
of anti-urban sprawl Smart Growth laws like AB 375 is that it mandates that new
housing developments be diverted from outlying communities to coastal
communities like Pasadena. The justification is that it cuts down on traffic
commuting distances and air pollution. But as pointed out above, this is
a specious assumption given the hidden double costs of light rail and hybrid
Moreover, Smart Growth
ruins the natural environment. Most of California’s natural groundwater
resources are located in the inland areas not along the coast or coastal
valleys. So diverting population growth to coastal areas only increases
dependence on highly expensive imported water that results in ruining the
Sacramento Delta from which most Californians get their drinking water. You
can have your clean air at the price of dirty Delta water. Or as the
original quote from which the title of this article puts it you can "purchase the barrel of whiskey that you do not need for the
price of a cow you cannot afford."
Laws such as AB 375 are
merely political devices to prevent the “Red” inland areas of the state from
growing rather than Blue coastal zones. But if we want a family-driven economic
base and solvency of the State of California the inland areas must be
This will mean putting
less social policy emphasis on housing for upscale singles, childless couples,
single-parent families, and even same sex marriages (despite the so-called
"civil rights" issues). A conservative case can be made for
same sex marriages, but not an urban-economic case. In New York, an
analysis by the City Controller’s Office in 2005 found that people leaving the
city were three times more likely to have children than those departing
(Kotkin). Like it our not, intact nuclear natural families make up our
economic base. That is why both tightly knit Chinese and Hispanic
families thrive in California, albeit often at different ends of the economic
During the Bogaard years,
big subsidies have been infused into luxury mixed use developments,
redevelopment projects that have coincidentally puffed up nearby housing to
unaffordable levels, a new Conference Center, a historically restored City
Hall, and soon, to a totally renovated Rose Bowl Stadium. Art colleges
and centers and playhouses import cultural consumers. These are all cultural
icons of which Pasadenans are proud. They generate a tourist economy to
the restaurant districts and museums. It is a great legacy. But all these
are built on the presumption of expendable income not subsistence income. Should
inflation raise its ugly head this economic base would be even more vulnerable
than in today’s deflationary economy.
Ultimately, a proposed
parcel tax cannot maintain the financial soundness of the public schools.
Centrifugal demographic forces will eventually drive young couples and families
to inland counties or to other states. Re-inflating the Housing Bubble will
only drive more minority families with built-up housing equity out of Pasadena
and its school system. PUSD and its consultants have never understood
this. Cities don’t live on money alone but on social and cultural forces as
well. Asian immigrant families are not attracted to Pasadena because of
the mediocre (not failing) school system that is rife with a social perception
Entrepreneurial families seek school systems where academics is a paramount value, not perceived corruption. Even if PUSD wins the
upcoming parcel tax vote it will eventually lose the more important trend of
families voting with their feet and moving out of the school district. Once
again, you can purchase votes through a parcel tax and contracts to consultants and non-profits funded by public monies for
the price of families voting with their feet and migrating out of the school
research firm IBIS World forecasts the following growth industries in the short
Car dealers have mostly moved out of Pasadena to inland Monrovia and
Multifamily housing might
be a growth industry but is counterproductive to producing a family-oriented
economic base and sustainable housing policy. Pasadena already has 53%
Single family housing
production in Pasadena has mostly been blocked by NIMBY’s and Open Space
agencies funded by government and highly endorsed by the newspaper media.
Private equity investment
funds (Munger Westco) would have to replace the government propped up banks and
secondary mortgage lenders in Pasadena (Fannie Mae, Indy-Mac).
The last I heard, search
engine businesses were starting to congregate along Lake Avenue in Pasadena,
but my memory is fuzzy on this.
I have a neighbor that
runs a court reporting business. She has taken a second job to keep the
business going and make the mortgage payments on her office and home. In the
near term this might not be a job stimulator because California is broke.
Providers (VOIP) may be promising but even Earthlink moved out of Pasadena. But
is anyone working on attracting such businesses?
Pasadena needs to rebuild
its economic base; it’s private economic base. To do this it needs a family
policy and a market-rate housing policy, not a nonprofit policy or more
stimulus jobs or more affordable, albeit subsidized, housing that only inflates
housing prices and mainly serves singles, childless couples, single-parent
families and civil unions, however laudable. An anecdotal case in point
is a young couple I made friends with at my gym who just had a baby and live in
one of the new upscale mixed use developments downtown. They now have moved to
La Canada, just over the border from Pasadena and JPL. He works as a
private equity fund manager. What's that tell you? And
coindentally, he has a view of Pasadena's Devil's Gate Dam.
Pasadena needs to create a
valuable labor pool that is a byproduct of strong families, natural
neighborhoods, and a social image of uncorrupted neighborhood schools.
But that’s not the way we’re
going. Instead we’re trying to save everything based on ever-higher
taxation and make-work jobs programs and a nonprofit sector that doesn’t pay
its fair share of taxes. It is a Devilish Economy that is like charting a
course to Devil's Gate Damn.
Recently, rain barrels have
entered the public discussion in the local newspaper as a possible solution to
our drought problem. Who knows, maybe the city will provide subsidized
rain barrels? As pointed out by many, rain barrels won’t even provide
enough water for your lawn and plants over the course of a year and won't
recharge the groundwater basin. They are trendy but unsustainable. But
they may serve as a transport vehicle for a wild ride over the top of the Devil’s
Gate Dam spillway in a storm, which is where we may be headed. But don’t
expect to find this message in any State of the City address.